A graphic is going viral across social media claiming that a pandemic occurs every hundred years. The graphic claims that a pandemic has broken out worldwide every hundred years, starting with 1720, followed by 1820 and 1920.
Claim:
The viral post by RCVJ Insta posted on March 2, 2023, shows an infographic that reads, "Did You Know? There is a theory that every 100 years, a pandemic happens" This is followed by a set of years and the associated pandemic. "1720-Plague 1820-Cholera Outbreak 1920-Spanish Flu 2020-Coronavirus"
Fact Check:
We first looked up the definition of a pandemic, which as per Britannica, is defined as an "outbreak of infectious disease that occurs over a wide geographical area and that is of high prevalence, generally affecting a significant proportion of the world's population, usually over several months."
Then we took a look at the Plague that took place in 1720. The Great Plague of 1720, also known as the Marseille Plague, was an outbreak of the Bubonic Plague that affected and spread from the city of Marseille, France, from 1720 to 1722.
An article published on Science Direct titled, 'Small oversights that led to the Great Plague of Marseille (1720–1723): Lessons from the past' noted that the Marseille Plague was an epidemic and not a pandemic.
The book The Great Plague Scare of 1720' notes that the Marseille Plague was an epidemic. The transnational study of the Plague of Provence is written by Cindy Ermus, Assistant Professor of History at the University of Texas.
The cholera outbreak mentioned in the viral post is classified as a pandemic, but the outbreak began in 1817, three years earlier than the claimed date. In Britannica, it was mentioned the first cholera pandemic began in 1817 and lasted until 1824, spreading from the Ganges Delta region of India to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa and Europe.
The second cholera pandemic began in 1829, and the third pandemic is thought to have erupted in 1852 in India, the Britannica article stated.
Scanning the website of the World Health Organisation, we came across a listing for cholera which states, "During the 19th century, cholera spread across the world from its original reservoir in the Ganges delta in India. Six subsequent pandemics killed millions of people across all continents."
WHO adds, "The current (seventh) pandemic started in South Asia in 1961, reached Africa in 1971, and the Americas in 1991." The health organization notes that the disease can be endemic or epidemic.
Image Credit: WHO
Coming to the 1920 Spanish Flu pandemic is conventionally marked as having begun on March 4, 1918, and was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is no universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. The pandemic lasted till April 1920, when the viral post mistakes as the pandemic's beginning.
The first cases of the Covid-19 pandemic were declared at the end of 2019, and the World Health Organisation did not declare it a pandemic until March 2020.
We came across a Frontiers article that stated the list of the pandemics that occurred throughout history that the viral post has not mentioned.
Conclusion:
We found that the viral posts make a false claim that pandemics occur every hundred years. The outbreaks in the post are not all pandemics and commenced before 1820 and 1920. There have been several pandemics throughout history apart from the four mentioned in the viral posts.
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